D3/Penta 21 clinical trial design: A randomised non-inferiority trial with nested drug licensing substudy to assess dolutegravir and lamivudine fixed dose formulations for the maintenance of virological suppression in children with HIV-1 infection, aged 2 to 15 years.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in utilising two-drug regimens for HIV treatment with the goal of reducing toxicity and improve acceptability. The D3 trial evaluates the efficacy and safety of DTG/3TC in children and adolescents and includes a nested pharmacokinetics(PK) substudy for paediatric drug licensing. METHODS: D3 is an ongoing open-label, phase III, 96-week non-inferiority randomised controlled trial(RCT) conducted in South Africa, Spain, Thailand, Uganda and the United Kingdom. D3 has enrolled 386 children aged 2- < 15 years, virologically suppressed for ≥6 months, with no prior treatment failure. Participants were randomised 1:1 to receive DTG/3TC or DTG plus two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors(NRTIs), stratified by region, age (2- < 6, 6- < 12, 12- < 15 years) and DTG use at enrolment (participants permitted to start DTG at enrolment). The primary outcome is confirmed HIV-1 RNA viral rebound ≥50 copies/mL by 96-weeks. The trial employs the Smooth Away From Expected(SAFE) non-inferiority frontier, which specifies the non-inferiority margin and significance level based on the observed event risk in the control arm. The nested PK substudy evaluates WHO weight-band-aligned dosing in the DTG/3TC arm. DISCUSSION: D3 is the first comparative trial evaluating DTG/3TC in children and adolescents. Implications of integrating a PK substudy and supplying data for prompt regulatory submission, were carefully considered to ensure the integrity of the ongoing trial. The trial uses an innovative non-inferiority frontier for the primary analysis to allow for a lower-than-expected confirmed viral rebound risk in the control arm, while ensuring interpretability of results and maintaining the planned sample size in an already funded trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Clinical Trial Number Register: ISRCTN17157458. European Clinical Trials Database: 2020-001426-57. CLINICALTRIALS: gov: NCT04337450.

Voluntariness of consent in paediatric HIV clinical trials: a mixed-methods, cross-sectional study of participants in the CHAPAS-4 and ODYSSEY trials in Uganda.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the voluntariness of consent in paediatric HIV clinical trials and the associated factors. DESIGN: Mixed-methods, cross-sectional study combining a quantitative survey conducted concurrently with indepth interviews. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: From January 2021 to April 2021, we interviewed parents of children on first-line or second-line Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in two ongoing paediatric HIV clinical trials [CHAPAS-4 (ISRCTN22964075) and ODYSSEY (ISRCTN91737921)] at the Joint Clinical Research Centre Mbarara, Uganda. OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome measures were the proportion of parents with voluntary consent, factors affecting voluntariness and the sources of external influence. Parents rated the voluntariness of their consent on a voluntariness ladder. Indepth interviews described participants' lived experiences and were aimed at adding context. RESULTS: All 151 parents randomly sampled for the survey participated (84% female, median age 40 years). Most (67%) gave a fully voluntary decision, with a score of 10 on the voluntariness ladder, whereas 8% scored 9, 9% scored 8, 6% scored 7, 8% scored 6 and 2.7% scored 4. Trust in medical researchers (adjusted OR 9.90, 95% CI 1.01 to 97.20, p=0.049) and male sex of the parent (adjusted OR 3.66, 95% CI 1.00 to 13.38, p=0.05) were positively associated with voluntariness of consent. Prior research experience (adjusted OR 0.31, 95% CI 0.12 to 0.78, p=0.014) and consulting (adjusted OR 0.25. 95% CI 0.10 to 0.60, p=0.002) were negatively associated with voluntariness. Consultation and advice came from referring health workers (36%), spouses (29%), other family members (27%), friends (15%) and researchers (7%). The indepth interviews (n=14) identified the health condition of the child, advice from referring health workers and the opportunity to access better care as factors affecting the voluntariness of consent. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a high voluntariness of consent, which was enhanced among male parents and by parents' trust in medical researchers. Prior research experience of the child and advice from health workers and spouses were negatively associated with the voluntariness of parents' consent. Female parents and parents of children with prior research experience may benefit from additional interventions to support voluntary participation.

"Getting pregnant during COVID-19 was a big risk because getting help from the clinic was not easy": COVID-19 experiences of women and healthcare providers in Harare, Zimbabwe.

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated measures may have disrupted delivery of maternal and neonatal health services and reversed the progress made towards dual elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis in Zimbabwe. This qualitative study explores the impact of the pandemic on the provision and uptake of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services from the perspectives of women and maternal healthcare providers. Longitudinal in-depth interviews were conducted with 20 pregnant and breastfeeding women aged 20-39 years living with HIV and 20 healthcare workers in two maternity polyclinics in low-income suburbs of Harare, Zimbabwe. Semi-structured interviews were held after the second and third waves of COVID-19 in March and November 2021, respectively. Data were analysed using a modified grounded theory approach. While eight antenatal care contacts are recommended by Zimbabwe's Ministry of Health and Child Care, women reported only being able to access two contacts. Although HIV testing, antiretroviral therapy (ART) refills and syphilis screening services were accessible at first contact, other services such as HIV-viral load monitoring and enhanced adherence counselling were not available for those on ART. Closure of clinics and shortened operating hours during the second COVID-19 wave resulted in more antenatal bookings occurring later during pregnancy and more home deliveries. Six of the 20 (33%) interviewed women reported giving birth at home, assisted by untrained traditional midwives as clinics were closed. Babies delivered at home missed ART prophylaxis and HIV testing at birth despite being HIV-exposed. Although women faced multiple challenges, they continued to attempt to access services after delivery. These findings underline the importance of investing in robust health systems that can respond to emergency situations to ensure continuity of essential HIV prevention, treatment, and care services.

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the outcomes of HIV-exposed neonates: a Zimbabwean tertiary hospital experience.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic has globally impacted health service access, delivery and resources. There are limited data regarding the impact on the prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) service delivery in low-resource settings. Neotree ( www.neotree.org ) combines data collection, clinical decision support and education to improve care for neonates. Here we evaluate impacts of COVID-19 on care for HIV-exposed neonates. METHODS: Data on HIV-exposed neonates admitted to the neonatal unit (NNU) at Sally Mugabe Central Hospital, Zimbabwe, between 01/06/2019 and 31/12/2021 were analysed, with pandemic start defined as 21/03/2020 and periods of industrial action (doctors (September 2019-January 2020) and nurses (June 2020-September 2020)) included, resulting in modelling during six time periods: pre-doctors' strike (baseline); doctors' strike; post-doctors' strike and pre-COVID; COVID and pre-nurses' strike; nurses' strike; post nurses' strike. Interrupted time series models were used to explore changes in indicators over time. RESULTS: Of 8,333 neonates admitted to the NNU, 904 (11%) were HIV-exposed. Mothers of 706/765 (92%) HIV-exposed neonates reported receipt of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy. Compared to the baseline period when average admissions were 78 per week (95% confidence interval (CI) 70-87), significantly fewer neonates were admitted during all subsequent periods until after the nurses' strike, with the lowest average number during the nurses' strike (28, 95% CI 23-34, p < 0.001). Across all time periods excluding the nurses strike, average mortality was 20% (95% CI 18-21), but rose to 34% (95% CI 25, 46) during the nurses' strike. There was no evidence for heterogeneity (p > 0.22) in numbers of admissions or mortality by HIV exposure status. Fewer HIV-exposed neonates received a PCR test during the pandemic (23%) compared to the pre-pandemic periods (40%) (RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.41-0.84, p < 0.001). The proportion of HIV-exposed neonates who received antiretroviral prophylaxis during admission was high throughout, averaging between 84% and 95% in each time-period. CONCLUSION: While antiretroviral prophylaxis for HIV-exposed neonates remained high throughout, concerning data on low admissions and increased mortality, similar in HIV-exposed and unexposed neonates, and reduced HIV testing, suggest some aspects of care may have been compromised due to indirect effects of the pandemic.

An adapted algorithm for patient engagement in care for young people living with perinatal HIV in England.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that engagement in care (EIC) may be worse in young people living with perinatal HIV (YPLPHIV) compared to adults or children living with HIV. We took a published EIC algorithm for adults with HIV, which takes patients' clinical scenarios into account, and adapted it for use in YPLPHIV in England, to measure their EIC. METHODS: The adult algorithm predicts when in the next 6 months the next clinic visit should be scheduled, based on routinely collected clinical indicators at the current visit. We updated the algorithm based on the latest adult guidelines at the time, and modified it for young people in paediatric care using the latest European paediatric guidelines. Paediatric/adolescent HIV consultants from the UK reviewed and adapted the resulting flowcharts. The adapted algorithm was applied to the Adolescent and Adults Living with Perinatal HIV (AALPHI) cohort in England. Data for 12 months following entry into AALPHI were used to predicted visits which were then compared to appointment attendances, to measure whether young people were in care in each month. Proxy markers (e.g. dates of CD4 counts, viral loads (VL)) were used to indicate appointment attendance. RESULTS: Three hundred sixteen patients were in AALPHI, of whom 41% were male, 82% of black African ethnicity and 58% born abroad. At baseline (time of AALPHI interview) median [IQR] age was 17 [15-18] years, median CD4 was 597 [427, 791] cells/µL and 69% had VL ≤50c/mL. 10 patients were dropped due to missing data. 306 YPLPHIV contributed 3,585 person months of follow up across the 12 month study in which a clinic visit was recorded for 1,204 months (38/1204 dropped due to missing data). The remaining 1,166 months were classified into 3 groups: Group-A: on ART, VL ≤ 50c/mL-63%(734/1,166) visit months, Group-B: on ART, VL > 50c/mL-27%(320/1,166) Group-C: not on ART-10%(112/1,166). Most patients were engaged in care with 87% (3,126/3,585) of months fulfilling the definition of engaged in care. CONCLUSIONS: The adapted algorithm allowed the varying clinical scenarios of YPLPHIV to be taken into account when measuring EIC. However availability of good quality surveillance data is crucial to ensure that EIC can be measured well.

Effect of dolutegravir on folate, vitamin B12 and mean corpuscular volume levels among children and adolescents with HIV: a sub-study of the ODYSSEY randomized controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the preferred antiretroviral treatment for children and adolescents living with HIV. A large surveillance study in Botswana previously raised concerns about an association between pre-conception dolutegravir and neural tube defects. Before these concerns were subsequently resolved, we set up a sub-study to look at the effect of dolutegravir on levels of folate and vitamin B12 in children and adolescents within the randomized ODYSSEY trial, as folate and vitamin B12 are known to play a crucial role in neural tube development. METHODS: We conducted the sub-study among Ugandan ODYSSEY participants and compared folate and vitamin B12 between children randomized to dolutegravir-based ART (DTG) and non-dolutegravir-based standard-of-care treatment (SOC). Plasma folate was measured at enrolment and week 4 on stored samples; in addition, plasma and red blood cell (RBC) folate and vitamin B12 were assayed at week ≥96 in prospectively collected samples. RBC mean corpuscular volume (MCV) was measured 24-weekly in all ODYSSEY participants. Samples analysed in the sub-study were collected between September 2016 and October 2020. RESULTS: A total of 229 children aged ≥6 years were included in the sub-study with median age at trial enrolment of 12.3 (interquartile range [IQR] 9.0, 14.7) years, and CD4 count of 501 (IQR 228, 695); 112 (49%) children were male. Most participants (225/229, 98%) had plasma folate results at enrolment and 214 (93%) children had results available for RBC folate, vitamin B12 and plasma folate at week ≥96. MCV results were analysed on 679 children aged ≥6 years enrolled in ODYSSEY. At week 4, mean plasma folate was significantly higher in the dolutegravir arm than in SOC (difference [DTG-SOC] 1.6 ng/ml, 95% CI 0.8, 2.3; p<0.001), and this difference persisted to week ≥96 (2.7 ng/ml, 95% CI 1.7, 3.7; p<0.001). Mean RBC folate at ≥96 weeks was also higher in the DTG arm (difference 73 ng/ml, 95% CI 3, 143; p = 0.041). There was no difference in the treatment arms for vitamin B12 levels at ≥96 weeks or change in MCV through trial follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma and RBC folate levels were higher in children and adolescents receiving dolutegravir-based ART than on other ART regimens. Further studies are needed to clarify the mechanisms of these interactions and the clinical implications of increased blood folate levels.

The Smooth Away From Expected (SAFE) non-inferiority frontier: theory and implementation with an application to the D3 trial.

BACKGROUND: In a non-inferiority trial, the choice of margin depends on the expected control event risk. If the true risk differs from expected, power and interpretability of results can be affected. A non-inferiority frontier pre-specifies an appropriate non-inferiority margin for each value of control event risk. D3 is a non-inferiority trial comparing two treatment regimens in children living with HIV, designed assuming a control event risk of 12%, a non-inferiority margin of 10%, 80% power and a significance level (α) of 0.025. We consider approaches to choosing and implementing a frontier for this already funded trial, where changing the sample size substantially would be difficult. METHODS: In D3, we fix the non-inferiority margin at 10%, 8% and 5% for control event risks of ≥9%, 5% and 1%, respectively. We propose four frontiers which fit these fixed points, including a Smooth Away From Expected (SAFE) frontier. Analysis approaches considered are as follows: using the pre-specified significance level (α=0.025); always using a reduced significance level (to achieve α≤0.025 across control event risks); reducing significance levels only when the control event risk differs significantly from expected (control event risk <9%); and using a likelihood ratio test. We compare power and type 1 error for SAFE with other frontiers. RESULTS: Changing the significance level only when the control event risk is <9% achieves approximately nominal (<3%) type I error rate and maintains reasonable power for control event risks between 1 and 15%. The likelihood ratio test method performs similarly, but the results are more complex to present. Other analysis methods lead to either inflated type 1 error or badly reduced power. The SAFE frontier gives more interpretable results with low control event risks than other frontiers (i.e. it uses more reasonable non-inferiority margins). Other frontiers do not achieve power close (i.e. within 1%) to SAFE across the range of likely control event risks while controlling type I error. CONCLUSIONS: The SAFE non-inferiority frontier will be used in D3, and the non-inferiority margin and significance level will be modified if the control event risk is lower than expected. This ensures results will remain interpretable if design assumptions are incorrect, while achieving similar power. A similar approach could be considered for other non-inferiority trials where the control event risk is uncertain.

Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Dolutegravir to Optimize Pediatric Dosing in HIV-1-Infected Infants, Children, and Adolescents.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: HIV treatment options remain limited in children. Dolutegravir is a potent and well-tolerated, once-daily HIV-1 integrase inhibitor recommended for HIV-1 infection in both adults and children down to 4 weeks of age. To support pediatric dosing of dolutegravir in children, we used a population pharmacokinetic model with dolutegravir data from the P1093 and ODYSSEY clinical trials. The relationship between dolutegravir exposure and selected safety endpoints was also evaluated. METHODS: A population pharmacokinetic model was developed with data from P1093 and ODYSSEY to characterize the pharmacokinetics and associated variability and to evaluate the impact of pharmacokinetic covariates. The final population pharmacokinetic model simulated exposures across weight bands, doses, and formulations that were compared with established adult reference data. Exploratory exposure-safety analyses evaluated the relationship between dolutegravir pharmacokinetic parameters and selected clinical laboratory parameters and adverse events. RESULTS: A total of N = 239 participants were included, baseline age ranged from 0.1 to 17.5 years, weight ranged from 3.9 to 91 kg, 50% were male, and 80% were black. The final population pharmacokinetic model was a one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination, enabling predictions of dolutegravir concentrations in the pediatric population across weight bands and doses/formulations. The predicted geometric mean trough concentration was comparable to the adult value following a 50-mg daily dose of dolutegravir for all weight bands at recommended doses. Body weight, age, and formulation were significant predictors of dolutegravir pharmacokinetics in pediatrics. Additionally, during an exploratory exposure-safety analysis, no correlation was found between dolutegravir exposure and selected safety endpoints or adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: The dolutegravir dosing in children ≥ 4 weeks of age on an age/weight-band basis provides comparable exposures to those historically observed in adults. Observed pharmacokinetic variability was higher in this pediatric population and no additional safety concerns were observed. These results support the weight-banded dosing of dolutegravir in pediatric participants currently recommended by the World Health Organization.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the provision and uptake of services for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe is targeting elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV by December 2025, however the COVID-19 pandemic challenged health service delivery globally. Monthly aggregated data were extracted from DHIS-2 for all facilities delivering antenatal care (ANC). ZIMSTAT and Spectrum demographic estimates were used for population-level denominators. Programme indicators are among those in HIV care and population indicators reflect the total population. The mean estimated proportion of pregnant women booking for ANC per month did not change (91% pre-pandemic vs 91% during pandemic, p = 0.95), despite dropping to 47% in April 2020. At a programme-level, the estimated proportion of women who received at least one HIV test fell in April 2020 (3.6% relative reduction vs March (95% CI 2.2-5.1), p<0.001) with gradual recovery towards pre-pandemic levels. The estimated proportion of women who were retested among those initially negative in pregnancy fell markedly in April 2020 (39% reduction (32-45%), p<0.001) and the subsequent increase was much slower, only reaching 39% by September 2021 compared to average 53% pre-pandemic. The mean estimated proportion of pregnant women with HIV on ART was unchanged at programme-level (98% vs 98%, p = 0.26), but decreased at population-level (86% vs 80%, p = 0.049). Antiretroviral prophylaxis coverage decreased among HIV-exposed infants, at programme- (94% vs 87%, p = 0.001) and population-levels (76% vs 68%, p<0.001). There was no significant change in HIV-exposed infants receiving EID (programme: 107% vs 103%, p = 0.52; population: 87% vs 79%, p = 0.081). The estimated proportion of infants with HIV diagnosed fell from 27% to 18%, (p<0.001), while the estimated proportion on ART was stable at a programme (88% vs 90%, p = 0.82) but not population (22% vs 16%, p = 0.004) level. Despite a drop at the start of the pandemic most programme indicators rapidly recovered. At a population-level indicators were slower to return, suggesting less women with HIV identified in care.

Enhancing interventions for prevention of mother-to-child- transmission of hepatitis B virus.

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a cornerstone of efforts to support progress towards elimination of viral hepatitis. Current guidelines recommend maternal screening, antiviral therapy during the third trimester of high-risk pregnancies, universal and timely HBV birth dose vaccination, and post-exposure prophylaxis with hepatitis B immunoglobulin for selected neonates. However, serological and molecular diagnostic testing, treatment and HBV vaccination are not consistently deployed, particularly in many high endemicity settings, and models predict that global targets for reduction in paediatric incidence will not be met by 2030. In this article, we briefly summarise the evidence for current practice and use this as a basis to discuss areas in which prevention of mother-to-child transmission can potentially be enhanced. By reducing health inequities, enhancing pragmatic use of resources, filling data gaps, developing advocacy and education, and seeking consistent investment from multilateral agencies, significant advances can be made to further reduce vertical transmission events, with wide health, societal and economic benefits.

Neuropsychiatric manifestations and sleep disturbances with dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy versus standard of care in children and adolescents: a secondary analysis of the ODYSSEY trial.

BACKGROUND: Cohort studies in adults with HIV showed that dolutegravir was associated with neuropsychiatric adverse events and sleep problems, yet data are scarce in children and adolescents. We aimed to evaluate neuropsychiatric manifestations in children and adolescents treated with dolutegravir-based treatment versus alternative antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of ODYSSEY, an open-label, multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority trial, in which adolescents and children initiating first-line or second-line antiretroviral therapy were randomly assigned 1:1 to dolutegravir-based treatment or standard-of-care treatment. We assessed neuropsychiatric adverse events (reported by clinicians) and responses to the mood and sleep questionnaires (reported by the participant or their carer) in both groups. We compared the proportions of patients with neuropsychiatric adverse events (neurological, psychiatric, and total), time to first neuropsychiatric adverse event, and participant-reported responses to questionnaires capturing issues with mood, suicidal thoughts, and sleep problems. FINDINGS: Between Sept 20, 2016, and June 22, 2018, 707 participants were enrolled, of whom 345 (49%) were female and 362 (51%) were male, and 623 (88%) were Black-African. Of 707 participants, 350 (50%) were randomly assigned to dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy and 357 (50%) to non-dolutegravir-based standard-of-care. 311 (44%) of 707 participants started first-line antiretroviral therapy (ODYSSEY-A; 145 [92%] of 157 participants had efavirenz-based therapy in the standard-of-care group), and 396 (56%) of 707 started second-line therapy (ODYSSEY-B; 195 [98%] of 200 had protease inhibitor-based therapy in the standard-of-care group). During follow-up (median 142 weeks, IQR 124-159), 23 participants had 31 neuropsychiatric adverse events (15 in the dolutegravir group and eight in the standard-of-care group; difference in proportion of participants with ≥1 event p=0·13). 11 participants had one or more neurological events (six and five; p=0·74) and 14 participants had one or more psychiatric events (ten and four; p=0·097). Among 14 participants with psychiatric events, eight participants in the dolutegravir group and four in standard-of-care group had suicidal ideation or behaviour. More participants in the dolutegravir group than the standard-of-care group reported symptoms of self-harm (eight vs one; p=0·025), life not worth living (17 vs five; p=0·0091), or suicidal thoughts (13 vs none; p=0·0006) at one or more follow-up visits. Most reports were transient. There were no differences by treatment group in low mood or feeling sad, problems concentrating, feeling worried or feeling angry or aggressive, sleep problems, or sleep quality. INTERPRETATION: The numbers of neuropsychiatric adverse events and reported neuropsychiatric symptoms were low. However, numerically more participants had psychiatric events and reported suicidality ideation in the dolutegravir group than the standard-of-care group. These differences should be interpreted with caution in an open-label trial. Clinicians and policy makers should consider including suicidality screening of children or adolescents receiving dolutegravir. FUNDING: Penta Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, and UK Medical Research Council.

Nucleoside/nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitor sparing regimen with once daily integrase inhibitor plus boosted darunavir is non-inferior to standard of care in virologically-suppressed children and adolescents living with HIV - Week 48 results of the randomised SMILE Penta-17-ANRS 152 clinical trial.

Background: Integrase inhibitor (INSTI) with boosted darunavir (DRV/r), a regimen with a high-resistance barrier, avoiding NRTI toxicities, might be a switching option in children living with HIV (CLWHIV). Methods: SMILE is a randomised non-inferiority trial evaluating safety and antiviral efficacy of once-daily INSTI + DRV/r vs. continuing on current standard-of-care (SOC) triple ART (2NRTI + boosted PI/NNRTI) in virologically-suppressed CLWHIV aged 6-18 years. The primary outcome is the proportion with confirmed HIV-RNA ≥50 copies/mL by week 48, estimated by Kaplan-Meier method. Non-inferiority margin was 10%. Registration number for SMILE are: ISRCTN11193709, NCT #: NCT02383108. Findings: Between 10th June 2016 and 30th August 2019, 318 participants were enrolled from Africa 53%, Europe 24%, Thailand 15% and Latin America 8%, 158 INSTI + DRV/r [153 Dolutegravir (DTG); 5 Elvitegravir (EVG)], 160 SOC. Median (range) age was 14.7 years (7.6-18.0); CD4 count 782 cells/mm3 (227-1647); 61% female. Median follow-up was 64.3 weeks with no loss to follow-up. By 48 weeks, 8 INSTI + DRV/r vs. 12 SOC had confirmed HIV-RNA ≥50 copies/mL; difference (INSTI + DRV/r-SOC) -2.5% (95% CI: -7.6, 2.5%), showing non-inferiority. No major PI or INSTI resistance mutations were observed. There were no differences in safety between arms. By week 48, difference (INSTI + DRV/r-SOC) in mean CD4 count change from baseline was -48.3 cells/mm3 (95% CI: -93.4, -3.2; p = 0.036). Difference (INSTI + DRV/r-SOC) in mean HDL change from baseline was -4.1 mg/dL (95% CI: -6.7, -1.4; p = 0.003). Weight and Body Mass Index (BMI) increased more in INSTI + DRV/r than SOC [difference: 1.97 kg (95% CI: 1.1, 2.9; p < 0.001), 0.66 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.3, 1.0; p < 0.001)]. Interpretation: In virologically-suppressed children, switching to INSTI + DRV/r was non-inferior virologically, with similar safety profile, to continuing SOC. Small but significant differences in CD4, HDL-cholesterol, weight and BMI were observed between INSTI + DRV/r vs. SOC although clinical relevance needs further investigation. SMILE data corroborate adult findings and provide evidence for this NRTI-sparing regimen for children and adolescents. Funding: Fondazione Penta Onlus, Gilead, Janssen, INSERM/ANRS and UK MRC. ViiV-Healthcare provided Dolutegravir.

Practical approaches to Bayesian sample size determination in non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes.

Bayesian analysis of a non-inferiority trial is advantageous in allowing direct probability statements to be made about the relative treatment difference rather than relying on an arbitrary and often poorly justified non-inferiority margin. When the primary analysis will be Bayesian, a Bayesian approach to sample size determination will often be appropriate for consistency with the analysis. We demonstrate three Bayesian approaches to choosing sample size for non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes and review their advantages and disadvantages. First, we present a predictive power approach for determining sample size using the probability that the trial will produce a convincing result in the final analysis. Next, we determine sample size by considering the expected posterior probability of non-inferiority in the trial. Finally, we demonstrate a precision-based approach. We apply these methods to a non-inferiority trial in antiretroviral therapy for treatment of HIV-infected children. A predictive power approach would be most accessible in practical settings, because it is analogous to the standard frequentist approach. Sample sizes are larger than with frequentist calculations unless an informative analysis prior is specified, because appropriate allowance is made for uncertainty in the assumed design parameters, ignored in frequentist calculations. An expected posterior probability approach will lead to a smaller sample size and is appropriate when the focus is on estimating posterior probability rather than on testing. A precision-based approach would be useful when sample size is restricted by limits on recruitment or costs, but it would be difficult to decide on sample size using this approach alone.

Once-daily dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy in infants and children living with HIV from age 4 weeks: results from the below 14 kg cohort in the randomised ODYSSEY trial.

BACKGROUND: Young children living with HIV have few treatment options. We aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children weighing between 3 kg and less than 14 kg. METHODS: ODYSSEY is an open-label, randomised, non-inferiority trial (10% margin) comparing dolutegravir-based ART with standard of care and comprises two cohorts (children weighing ≥14 kg and <14 kg). Children weighing less than 14 kg starting first-line or second-line ART were enrolled in seven HIV treatment centres in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Randomisation, which was computer generated by the trial statistician, was stratified by first-line or second-line ART and three weight bands. Dispersible 5 mg dolutegravir was dosed according to WHO weight bands. The primary outcome was the Kaplan-Meier estimated proportion of children with virological or clinical failure by 96 weeks, defined as: confirmed viral load of at least 400 copies per mL after week 36; absence of virological suppression by 24 weeks followed by a switch to second-line or third-line ART; all-cause death; or a new or recurrent WHO stage 4 or severe WHO stage 3 event. The primary outcome was assessed by intention to treat in all randomly assigned participants. A primary Bayesian analysis of the difference in the proportion of children meeting the primary outcome between treatment groups incorporated evidence from the higher weight cohort (≥14 kg) in a prior distribution. A frequentist analysis was also done of the lower weight cohort (<14 kg) alone. Safety analyses are presented for all randomly assigned children in this study (<14 kg cohort). ODYSSEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02259127. FINDINGS: Between July 5, 2018, and Aug 26, 2019, 85 children weighing less than 14 kg were randomly assigned to receive dolutegravir (n=42) or standard of care (n=43; 32 [74%] receiving protease inhibitor-based ART). Median age was 1·4 years (IQR 0·6-2·0) and median weight 8·1 kg (5·4-10·0). 72 (85%) children started first-line ART and 13 (15%) started second-line ART. Median follow-up was 124 weeks (112-137). By 96 weeks, treatment failure occurred in 12 children in the dolutegravir group (Kaplan-Meier estimated proportion 31%) versus 21 (48%) in the standard-of-care group. The Bayesian estimated difference in treatment failure (dolutegravir minus standard of care) was -10% (95% CI -19% to -2%; p=0·020), demonstrating superiority of dolutegravir. The frequentist estimated difference was -18% (-36% to 2%; p=0·057). 15 serious adverse events were reported in 11 (26%) children in the dolutegravir group, including two deaths, and 19 were reported in 11 (26%) children in the standard-of-care group, including four deaths (hazard ratio [HR] 1·08 [95% CI 0·47-2·49]; p=0·86). 36 adverse events of grade 3 or higher were reported in 19 (45%) children in the dolutegravir group, versus 34 events in 21 (49%) children in the standard-of-care group (HR 0·93 [0·50-1·74]; p=0·83). No events were considered related to dolutegravir. INTERPRETATION: Dolutegravir-based ART was superior to standard of care (mainly protease inhibitor-based) with a lower risk of treatment failure in infants and young children, providing support for global dispersible dolutegravir roll-out for younger children and allowing alignment of adult and paediatric treatment. FUNDING: Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, UK Medical Research Council.

Dolutegravir twice-daily dosing in children with HIV-associated tuberculosis: a pharmacokinetic and safety study within the open-label, multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority ODYSSEY trial.

BACKGROUND: Children with HIV-associated tuberculosis (TB) have few antiretroviral therapy (ART) options. We aimed to evaluate the safety and pharmacokinetics of dolutegravir twice-daily dosing in children receiving rifampicin for HIV-associated TB. METHODS: We nested a two-period, fixed-order pharmacokinetic substudy within the open-label, multicentre, randomised, controlled, non-inferiority ODYSSEY trial at research centres in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Children (aged 4 weeks to <18 years) with HIV-associated TB who were receiving rifampicin and twice-daily dolutegravir were eligible for inclusion. We did a 12-h pharmacokinetic profile on rifampicin and twice-daily dolutegravir and a 24-h profile on once-daily dolutegravir. Geometric mean ratios for trough plasma concentration (Ctrough), area under the plasma concentration time curve from 0 h to 24 h after dosing (AUC0-24 h), and maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) were used to compare dolutegravir concentrations between substudy days. We assessed rifampicin Cmax on the first substudy day. All children within ODYSSEY with HIV-associated TB who received rifampicin and twice-daily dolutegravir were included in the safety analysis. We described adverse events reported from starting twice-daily dolutegravir to 30 days after returning to once-daily dolutegravir. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02259127), EudraCT (2014-002632-14), and the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN91737921). FINDINGS: Between Sept 20, 2016, and June 28, 2021, 37 children with HIV-associated TB (median age 11·9 years [range 0·4-17·6], 19 [51%] were female and 18 [49%] were male, 36 [97%] in Africa and one [3%] in Thailand) received rifampicin with twice-daily dolutegravir and were included in the safety analysis. 20 (54%) of 37 children enrolled in the pharmacokinetic substudy, 14 of whom contributed at least one evaluable pharmacokinetic curve for dolutegravir, including 12 who had within-participant comparisons. Geometric mean ratios for rifampicin and twice-daily dolutegravir versus once-daily dolutegravir were 1·51 (90% CI 1·08-2·11) for Ctrough, 1·23 (0·99-1·53) for AUC0-24 h, and 0·94 (0·76-1·16) for Cmax. Individual dolutegravir Ctrough concentrations were higher than the 90% effective concentration (ie, 0·32 mg/L) in all children receiving rifampicin and twice-daily dolutegravir. Of 18 children with evaluable rifampicin concentrations, 15 (83%) had a Cmax of less than the optimal target concentration of 8 mg/L. Rifampicin geometric mean Cmax was 5·1 mg/L (coefficient of variation 71%). During a median follow-up of 31 weeks (IQR 30-40), 15 grade 3 or higher adverse events occurred among 11 (30%) of 37 children, ten serious adverse events occurred among eight (22%) children, including two deaths (one tuberculosis-related death, one death due to traumatic injury); no adverse events, including deaths, were considered related to dolutegravir. INTERPRETATION: Twice-daily dolutegravir was shown to be safe and sufficient to overcome the rifampicin enzyme-inducing effect in children, and could provide a practical ART option for children with HIV-associated TB. FUNDING: Penta Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, UK Medical Research Council.

Combining factorial and multi-arm multi-stage platform designs to evaluate multiple interventions efficiently.

BACKGROUND: Factorial designs and multi-arm multi-stage (MAMS) platform designs have many advantages, but the practical advantages and disadvantages of combining the two designs have not been explored. METHODS: We propose practical methods for a combined design within the platform trial paradigm where some interventions are not expected to interact and could be given together. RESULTS: We describe the combined design and suggest diagrams that can be used to represent it. Many properties are common both to standard factorial designs, including the need to consider interactions between interventions and the impact of intervention efficacy on power of other comparisons, and to standard multi-arm multi-stage designs, including the need to pre-specify procedures for starting and stopping intervention comparisons. We also identify some specific features of the factorial-MAMS design: timing of interim and final analyses should be determined by calendar time or total observed events; some non-factorial modifications may be useful; eligibility criteria should be broad enough to include any patient eligible for any part of the randomisation; stratified randomisation may conveniently be performed sequentially; and analysis requires special care to use only concurrent controls. CONCLUSION: A combined factorial-MAMS design can combine the efficiencies of factorial trials and multi-arm multi-stage platform trials. It allows us to address multiple research questions under one protocol and to test multiple new treatment options, which is particularly important when facing a new emergent infection such as COVID-19.

Borrowing information across patient subgroups in clinical trials, with application to a paediatric trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trial investigators may need to evaluate treatment effects in a specific subgroup (or subgroups) of participants in addition to reporting results of the entire study population. Such subgroups lack power to detect a treatment effect, but there may be strong justification for borrowing information from a larger patient group within the same trial, while allowing for differences between populations. Our aim was to develop methods for eliciting expert opinions about differences in treatment effect between patient populations, and to incorporate these opinions into a Bayesian analysis. METHODS: We used an interaction parameter to model the relationship between underlying treatment effects in two subgroups. Elicitation was used to obtain clinical opinions on the likely values of the interaction parameter, since this parameter is poorly informed by the data. Feedback was provided to experts to communicate how uncertainty about the interaction parameter corresponds with relative weights allocated to subgroups in the Bayesian analysis. The impact on the planned analysis was then determined. RESULTS: The methods were applied to an ongoing non-inferiority trial designed to compare antiretroviral therapy regimens in 707 children living with HIV and weighing ≥ 14 kg, with an additional group of 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg in whom the treatment effect will be estimated separately. Expert clinical opinion was elicited and demonstrated that substantial borrowing is supported. Clinical experts chose on average to allocate a relative weight of 78% (reduced from 90% based on sample size) to data from children weighing ≥ 14 kg in a Bayesian analysis of the children weighing < 14 kg. The total effective sample size in the Bayesian analysis was 386 children, providing 84% predictive power to exclude a difference of more than 10% between arms, whereas the 85 younger children weighing < 14 kg provided only 20% power in a standalone frequentist analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Borrowing information from a larger subgroup or subgroups can facilitate estimation of treatment effects in small subgroups within a clinical trial, leading to improved power and precision. Informative prior distributions for interaction parameters are required to inform the degree of borrowing and can be informed by expert opinion. We demonstrated accessible methods for obtaining opinions.

Dolutegravir dosing for children with HIV weighing less than 20 kg: pharmacokinetic and safety substudies nested in the open-label, multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority ODYSSEY trial.

BACKGROUND: Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy is a preferred first-line treatment for adults and children living with HIV; however, very little pharmacokinetic data for dolutegravir use are available in young children. We therefore aimed to evaluate dolutegravir dosing and safety in children weighing 3 kg to less than 20 kg by assessing pharmacokinetic parameters and safety data in children taking dolutegravir within the ODYSSEY trial. METHODS: We did pharmacokinetic substudies nested within the open-label, multicentre, randomised, non-inferiority ODYSSEY trial. We enrolled children from seven research centres in South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Children weighing 3 kg to less than 14 kg received 5 mg dispersible tablets of dolutegravir according to WHO weight bands: 5 mg for children weighing 3 kg to less than 6 kg and younger than 6 months, 10 mg for children weighing 3 kg to less than 6 kg and aged 6 months or older, 15 mg for children weighing 6 kg to less than 10 kg, and 20 mg for children weighing 10 kg to less than 14 kg. Children weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg received a 25 mg film-coated tablet once per day early in the trial or 25 mg dispersible tablets (five 5 mg tablets once per day) later in the trial. A minimum of eight children per weight band or dose was targeted for 24 h pharmacokinetic profiling at steady state. The primary pharmacokinetic parameter was the trough concentration 24 h after observed dolutegravir intake (Ctrough). Pharmacokinetic targets were based on adult dolutegravir Ctrough and the 90% effective concentration (EC90; ie, 0·32 mg/L). Safety was evaluated in eligible children consenting to pharmacokinetic substudies. FINDINGS: Between May 25, 2017, and Aug 15, 2019, we enrolled 72 children aged between 3 months and 11 years. 71 children were included in the safety population and 55 (76%) of 72 children contributed 65 evaluable pharmacokinetic profiles. Geometric mean Ctrough in children on dispersible tablets in weight bands between 3 kg and less than 20 kg ranged between 0·53-0·87 mg/L, comparable to the adult geometric mean Ctrough of 0·83 mg/L. Variability was high with coefficient of variation percentages ranging between 50% and 150% compared with 26% in adults. Ctrough below EC90 was observed in four (31%) of 13 children weighing 6 kg to less than 10 kg taking 15 mg dispersible tablets, and four (21%) of 19 weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg taking 25 mg film-coated tablets. The lowest geometric mean Ctrough of 0·44 mg/L was observed in children weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg on 25 mg film-coated tablets. Exposures were 1·7-2·0 times higher on 25 mg dispersible tablets versus 25 mg film-coated tablets. 19 (27%) of 71 children had 29 reportable grade 3 or higher adverse events (13 serious adverse events, including two deaths), none of which were related to dolutegravir. INTERPRETATION: Weight-band dosing of paediatric dolutegravir dispersible tablets provides appropriate drug exposure in most children weighing 3 kg to less than 20 kg, with no safety signal. 25 mg film-coated tablets did not achieve pharmacokinetic parameters in children weighing 14 kg to less than 20 kg, which were comparable to adults, suggesting dosing with dispersible tablets is preferable or a higher film-coated tablet dose is required. FUNDING: Paediatric European Network for Treatment of AIDS Foundation, ViiV Healthcare, and UK Medical Research Council.